Dienstag, 15. Januar 2008

did some math

i did some math on the qq hand. if his range includes:

(66,55,44,33,JJ,AhQh,56,34,46,Ah5h)
i have 38% and i need something close to 38% so it's close.

if i narrow it down to (66,44,33,ahqh,Ah5h) i have 16 percent.

there is just one case where i can't fold here namely if villain would also raise here with 88,99,TT,JJ and that's what i assumed. yet i am not sure if he would do that but given the action on the flop he may not raise 88 or 99.

BUT: if he holds (33,44,66,ahqh,ah5h,88,99,TT,JJ,34,46) i am 52% favourite. if i narrow it down to (33,44,66,TT,JJ,34,46,Ah5h) i have 41% equit and it's close again.

i have seen him coldcalling KK but 3betting QQ so i am not sure what he does with
(TT,JJ,QQ,KK,AA ) in this spot.

i think with a better read that villain would go broke here with 88 and 99 and 3bet kk,aa preflop i could shove here but it's gonna be a marginal spot everytime. there is also a small chance that the coldcaller may slowplay a big hand.


i think it's close but this is a fold.

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